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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward pattern. It often serves as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your team in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who orchestrated the largest improvement wins the prize. In reality, it creates an annual debate about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or just the greatest surprise.

But the latest field is fundamentally different. The pool of nominees is remarkably deep. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference winners falling away and longtime strugglers improving in unison. During an typical season, a coach leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this wild and thrilling season, he's up against five other exceptional coaches.

This is how the projected vote could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his special ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained performance. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than freelancing. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been capable to spin big plays from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a normal year, he would be the overwhelming choice. But the current isn't a normal season!

Where his case runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for sustained success. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the off-field stuff, which wasn't a given after his initial public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. But Coen has pulled the entire group and everything together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still