Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
